| Turkmensahra |
ترکمنصحرا |
Muhammad Tahir
IRAN AND
TURKMENISTAN:
WHAT BROUGHT AHMADINEJAD TO ASGHABAT?
Published on: Central Asia and Caucasus
Analyst –Washington
www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=4441
The President of Turkmenistan, Sapamurat Niyazov,
is a man full of surprises. He again got the attention of many western observers
by hosting one of the most criticized leaders in the world, Iranian President
Mahmood Ahmadinejad at a very critical moment. Ahmedinajad paid an official visit
to Turkmenistan on July 24-25, 2006, while his foreign policies, including alleged
support of the Lebanon-based paramilitary group Hizbollah, was being strongly
criticized by the international community, especially major Western powers. The
intentions behind this two-day, unannounced, official visit with no concrete agenda,
raised many questions among western observers since there was also no major agreement
reached during this surprise visit.
BACKGROUND:
The relationship between Iran and Turkmenistan officially began shortly after
the Turkmenistan’s independence in 1991, when they officially inaugurated diplomatic
missions. Since then, Iran has become an important player among nations fighting
to increase their influence in Central Asian countries. Iran, despite its reputation
of being a repressive Islamic regime, had an advantageous position to take this
struggle one step ahead of the others, since it was also welcomed by Turkmenistan,
because, in contrast to western countries, Tehran had no interest in the political
system of Turkmenistan.
Iran also received credit from the Niyazov administration, because of its humanitarian
assistance while Turkmenistan as a young nation was facing a tremendous shortage
of food and other daily needs. Niyazov still occasionally recalls this support,
as he did in this meeting, sending especially warm regards to former Iranian President
Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom Niyazov calls ‘brother Hashemi’. Over the last several
years, Iran has worked hard to increase its cultural influence by opening cultural
houses not only in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, but also in the Mary region.
Besides these activities, the two countries not only share a 992 km-long border,
but also both have autocratic regimes, and made important progress in bilateral
trade that reportedly surpassed US$1 billion in 2005. Iran, which is today the
second biggest buyer of Turkmen natural gas, electricity, liquefied gas and polypropylene
after Russia, purchased some 5.8 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan
in 2005. The two leaders indicated their intention of increasing this volume to
more than 13 bcm in coming years.
Yet most observers believe the relationship of these two countries is more about
politics than about trade and economics. Iran and Turkmenistan are two isolated
nations in a region that have a common ground of understanding in such fields
as strict control over civil and human rights issues. Moreover, the Iranian Government
has additional reasons to be interested in cooperation with Turkmenistan. From
the day Tehran increasingly became at target of Western powers, it had to increase
monitoring the activities of ethnic minorities inside the country, whom Tehran
views as potential threats to the central regime. Hence, from the Iranian point
of view, Turkmenistan is important since more than four million ethnic Turkmens
live in Iran. The Turkmen have a history of resistance against the Iranian regime,
and also follow the Sunni faith of Islam, while Shi’a Islam is Iran’s state religion.
After recent developments in neighboring countries, the ethnic Turkmen factor
seems to gain importance. After Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in Iraq, Iranian
Kurds and Arabs have increasingly been inspired by developments which made minorities
an important part of that country’s governmental structure. Aside from these,
Baluchis and Azeris have grown more restive as well. But so far no signs of open
dissatisfaction have been demonstrated by the ethnic Turkmens. Tehran attributes
this to their lack of external support.
In addition to increasingly high levels of dialogue with Ashgabat, Iran has also
been seen taking practical measures to separate the two societies, by encouraging
the resettlement of non-Turkmen communities on the Iranian side of the Turkmen
border, thereby blocking direct contact between Turkmen societies living on both
sides. In addition, Iran this Summer signed an agreement of non-interference in
internal affairs with Turkmenistan.
IMPLICATIONS:
Western observers connect Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkmenistan as part of a confidence-building
measure between the two countries, which could help Tehran make sure that in the
event of foreign aggression toward Iran, the territories of Turkmenistan will
not be used against it. Besides the declaration indicating non-interference in
each other’s internal affairs and sovereignty, the sides also agreed on a document
which says that the ‘sides will not allow its territories to be used against each
other’. This was one important section of the document signed during the meeting
of the Iranian and Turkmen leaders, which was previously expected by many to be
focused on the legal status of the Caspian sea, as it remains an important issue
between these two countries. In a situation like this, this visit was seen by
many political observers a kind of political show by Ahmedinejad, as part of his
wider spread of propaganda directed against the allegations of Western countries
toward Iran, and, in particular, related to recent developments in the Middle
East.
In some respects, this intention of Ahmedinejda was reflected in the meeting as
well, since not only he but Turkmen President Niyazov have been seen calling Western
countries to use dialogue to solve international disagreements, though naming
any particular conflict. According to a semi-official Turkmen news source, Turkmenistan.ru,
both leaders agreed with a document that states the importance of the central
role of the UN in resolving international problems, as well as solving conflicts
through political dialogue, not through the use of force’. The Turkmen President
expressed his support Iran’s stance towards solving international problems with
peaceful means as well as the orientation of Iran’s foreign policy. The last paragraph
especially – the expression of support for Iranian foreign policy by the Turkmen
government, raises eyebrows since Iran is criticized by the international community
on issues such as its support of Hizbollah,, its nuclear policy, and its position
rejecting the state of Israel’s right to exist, and allegations of its involvement
with terrorist groups. But some former high level officials in the Turkmen government
say that from the Turkmen point of view, this phrase likely contains no message
of real support for Iranian policy regarding the Middle East conflict.
Niyazov does not have a deep knowledge of international diplomacy, said former
Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan Avdi Kuliyev. ‘Sometimes he can make mistakes,
which, if made by another leader, could create a major political scandal’. As
an example, Kuliyev cited the occasion where Niyazov expressed support for Pakistan’s
Kashmir policy at a meeting with Pakistani officials, following which he also
expressed support for India’s Kashmir policy while meeting with Indian officials.
The former diplomat also said many international leaders do not take such comments
made by Niyazov seriously.
CONCLUSIONS:
Despite minor agreements, this previously unannounced official visit, more than
anything else, seems to constitute a political show by the Iranian President on
an occasion when he is widely criticized internationally regarding Iran’s alleged
support of Hizbollah, and the country’s nuclear program. But the question of what
Turkmenistan intended to gain by hosting Ahmedinejad, remains unclear. However,
some local experts say that Turkmenistan wants to find an alternative transit
route for its natural gas and other goods, as it looks for energy export options
that could bypass Russia. But such intentions also would have little chance in
practice, since this will be opposed by world powers. In a situation like this,
aside from an opening ceremony of new buildings at the ‘Gudan-Bajirgan customs
point’ on the border, no major progress has been made during these two-day official
meetings. The reaction of the international community to this visit is still in
question since the entire world was busy following the Israel-Palestine and Israel-Lebanon
conflict.
AUTHOR’S
BIO: Muhammad Tahir is a Prague-based
writer and journalist specializing in Central Asia and is also the author of a
book on Iran, ‘Illegal Dating-A Journey into the Private Life of Iran’.
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